A Meta-Analysis Integrating Field Data to Quantify Corallivorous Fish Impacts on Coral Outplant Success through a Spatiotemporal Predation Pressure Index

Corallivorous fish predation is a major obstacle to coral restoration success in Florida, particularly for massive morphology species. This project addressed critical knowledge gaps by synthesizing nearly a decade of coral predation data from the University of Miami and Nova Southeastern University, spanning reef sites in Miami-Dade County, Biscayne National Park, and the Kristin Jacobs Coral Aquatic Preserve. Across five NSU outplanting studies (2021–2026), 20% of 2,475 monitored corals showed evidence of predation, with Colpophyllia natans experiencing the highest prevalence across studies and sites. Across 15 UM outplanting studies (2018–2025), encompassing 3,667 corals across 14 species and 26 reefs, overall predation prevalence was 64.5%, with Diploria labyrinthiformis and Colpophyllia natans exceeding 85%. To characterize corallivorous fish pressures on coral outplants, a novel Coral-Baited Remote Underwater Video System (C-BRUVS) was designed, constructed, and deployed to characterize predator identity, size class, and feeding behavior without diver interference. The C-BRUVS captured 14 hours of real-time video per day over several days. Across three deployments with recorded predation, stoplight parrotfish dominated corallivory, with foureye butterflyfish and redband parrotfish also contributing substantially. Parrotfish bites were significantly correlated with coral tissue loss, confirming C-BRUVS as a valid tool for quantifying predation pressure. A prevalence-based Predation Pressure Index (PPI) was developed from the meta-analysis dataset. Because paired fish survey data were not collected concurrently with predation monitoring across most contributing studies, the PPI and a complementary parrotfish hot spot analysis of NCRMP reef fish visual census data (2018–2024) are presented as two spatial indicators of predation risk, with the hotspots of corallivorous fish integrated into the Decision Support Tool (SeaSketch). Together, they provide restoration practitioners with a more informed basis for outplant site selection for target coral species and for corallivorous parrotfish.