Geographic Focus Area Determination for Florida’s Coral Reef Restoration & Recovery (FCR3) Initiative’s Restoration Sites

Florida’s Coral Reef (FCR) has seen significant coral population declines due to a combination of global, regional, and local factors. In conjunction with reducing stressors, restoration is required for the recovery of the coral populations which underpin this ecologically and economically important resource. Governor DeSantis directed the establishment of Florida's Coral Reef Restoration and Recovery (FCR3) Initiative in 2023 with Executive Order 23-06 to support the long-term recovery of no less than 25% of FCR by 2050. Utilizing expert knowledge and the best available data, this project evaluated and selected 25% of the most suitable restoration area within state waters to ground-truth before restoration activities commence. 

We used Florida’s Coral Reef Resilience Program’s tier 1 strategy, which identified high larval connectivity areas with the presence of priority coral species, as a starting point. We then calculated 16 ecological and environmental metrics from in situ, satellite and modelled data to evaluate the suitability of 659 tier 1 focal areas for coral restoration success. Focal area evaluation and ranking was conducted in a multi-step process and balanced coral demographic metrics which are known to reflect a reefs disturbance history and ability to support coral populations, with climate and water quality metrics known to influence coral survival. Metrics were spatially joined to tier 1 focal areas, normalized within geographic areas and the focal area ranking score calculated from the magnitude and direction of influence of each metric. Priority species density, species richness and mean colony diameter were determined to be the best predictors of restoration success and given extra weight in the calculation. Focal area ranks were calculated separately for the Kristin Jacobs Coral Aquatic Preserve, the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas due to differences in water quality metric calculations, then ranks compared within counties. Ranks were initially calculated for all focal areas and then recalculated only considering focal areas within state waters. Priority focal areas for ground-truthing were selected as the top-ranking focal areas that accounted for 25% of the total area in state waters per county. Any focal areas outside state waters that ranked above the 80th percentile overall regardless of county were also recommended for ground-truthing. 

One hundred and six priority focal areas for ground-truthing were identified within state waters along FCR. Six priority focal areas were identified in Martin County, nine in Palm Beach County, 10 in Broward County, 19 in Miami-Dade County, and 62 in Monroe County. Evaluations identified a further 19 high-ranking focal areas outside state waters, 10 in Biscayne National Park and 9 in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, where restoration is most likely to be successful. Combined, the priority focal areas and highranking focal areas account for 25% of suitable tier 1 focal area for restoration. 

The recommended priority focal areas and high-ranking focal areas are the locations on FCR where restoration activities using Acropora cervicornis, Diploria labyrinthiformis, Montastraea cavernosa, Orbicella spp. and Pseudodiploria strigosa are predicted to be most successful. Spatial comparisons with shoreline protection projections also suggest restoration in many of the priority focal areas would have positive benefit-to-cost ratios and provide protection from flooding under a hybrid reef scenario.